2024-03-10

Life is Long Gamma

Recently i have been starting to read more Nassim taleb, and i came about his concept of life being longs gamma.

Gamma describes a concept where a linear change in an input can have an exponential change in the output. Lets give some examples: if you run a red light at 30 miles per hour and hit a car, you’ll have an insurance claim. Running the same red light at 60 miles per hour sends you to the hospital, plus the insurance claim at 120 you are dead. Even though your speed increased linearly (the input), the outcome became exponentially more severe. Another example would be the effect of increasing the dosage of a medication. For instance, taking a painkiller at the recommended dose might alleviate discomfort without significant side effects. However, doubling or tripling the dosage could lead to severe health complications or overdose, causing hospitalization or even death. Or the relationship between the input (workload) and outcome (CPU performance and health) is not linear; rather, it becomes exponentially more critical as the workload approaches the CPU's limits. The universe tends to work this way

Now being "Long” gamma means you gain proportionately more from large favorable moves than small ones, and lose proportionately less from large unfavorable moves than small ones. This is also described as convex or concave where in convex means big moves in your favor help you more than big losses against you hurt.

If you upload a video to YouTube, the worst that is likely to happen is it will be ignored. But if things really go your way, it could make you famous and perhaps open paths to get rich. So that’s a convex activity.

If you go into a rough bar and challenge the room to a fight, the best that is likely to happen is you will be ignored. But if things go against you, you could be beaten up or killed, or end up in jail. So that’s not concave

Nassim Taleb once said: "Practice teaches us is to learn to do *convex* things without a clear reason. The objective of systematized education is to stamp out such behavior, even pathologize it". This means we should do stuff that may have extremely high upside and very limited downside even if we do not have a clear reason as to why we should do it. In the current education system doing things without a clear reason is not encouraged. You need to know the scientific/logical reason. For example typically grad schools expect a clear story in your application essay as to why you have done what you have done so far and what exactly do you plan to do in the future. So I can't do something just because I feel it is beneficial, I have to have a clear reason or else I do not have a 'clear approach' towards life/career etc. Often times this behavior even gets pathologized.

While the opposide of fragile is antifragile, antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. Robust things stay the same when being expressed to stress, antifragile things get a GAIN. Lets just go over some more examples

1

Antifragile

Human Body: Regular exercise is a classic example of antifragility. When you subject your body to stress through physical activity, it responds by becoming stronger. Your muscles rebuild themselves to handle greater loads, your cardiovascular system becomes more efficient, and your bones become denser. Each workout session introduces stress to your body, but it adapts and improves as a result.

Airlines: Airlines are antifrigile because when a plane crash, the other planes gets better. In other words, the company learns why the plane crashed and adapt the others planes to avoid another catastrophe.

Fragile

Glassware: Glass is a fragile material because it shatters easily when subjected to stress or impact. It lacks the ability to adapt and become stronger in response to external forces. A slight bump or drop can result in irreparable damage or breakage.

Monoculture Agriculture: Monoculture farming, where a single crop is grown over large areas, is fragile. While it may seem efficient in the short term, it's highly vulnerable to pests, diseases, and adverse weather conditions. A single pest outbreak or a change in climate could devastate the entire crop, leading to significant losses for farmers.

As you can see the Antifragile examples are all gaining from volatility, randomness, disorder, risk, and uncertainty.

How can you be antifragile as a human

You cannot be human and be “antifragile”, it’s against the very nature of what and who you are. The human condition is one of fragility; from the moment we are born to the day we are out to rest. You have to be good at doing things, because doing even one stupid thing can kill you. Getting out of bed in the morning you have to swing your feet over the side, put them on the floor and balance—or you could end up with a serious fall injury. You have nearly an infinite number of opportunities throughout the day to fall, get electrocuted, die in a car accident or otherwise kill yourself. But there are some ways to get closer to being anifragile, i listed them below

  • Stick to simple rules
  • Build in redundancy and layers (no single point of failure)
  • Resist the urge to suppress randomness
  • Make sure that you have your soul in the game
  • Experiment and tinker — take lots of small risks
  • Avoid risks that, if lost, would wipe you out completely
  • Don’t get consumed by data
  • Keep your options open
  • Focus more on avoiding things that don’t work than trying to find out what does work
  • Respect the old — look for habits and rules that have been around for a long time
  • Thanks,

    Finn