2023-10-10

Are Bonds really that liquid ?

Bonds, particularly Treasuries, are commonly regarded as the most liquid assets globally. However, are they truly as liquid as they should be? They are expected to be! In the repo market, a significant portion of the collateral consists of Treasuries. According to the definition, collateral should be free of credit and liquidity risk. While stocks have not seen a substantial decline, Bonds, on the other hand, have experienced a decrease of over 50%. This decline is reminiscent of, if not more severe than, the stock market drawdown observed in 2008.

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The stock market and the bond market are roughly equivalent in size.

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Are they genuinely as liquid as they seem? I have my doubts. People on Twitter are saying that it doesn't matter that they've declined by over 50% since they mature at par in 30 years. What? That doesn't strike me as liquidity.

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Even as a long-term investor, if your investment horizon surpasses the bond's maturity and you anticipate rising interest rates, it's vital to acknowledge that locking in a sub 1% nominal rate on a 10-year bond three years ago could result in a real return over the next seven years of approximately -3% to -5%. Consider real returns, factoring in inflation, not just nominal values.

Thanks,

Finn